NFL Win Probability Analysis by Team
Using play-by-play win probability analysis, we measure every high-leverage moment in 2025—tracking lead changes, scoring efficiency, and late-game swings. Fight Score measures comeback ability in wins; Heartbreak Score measures blown leads in losses. The Heart Rate Index combines these factors with team strength (ELO) and QB rating.
From
—To
Group By
Fight Score
Cumulative win probability overcome in victories
1
Denver Broncos
868%
2
Jacksonville Jaguars
804%
3
Chicago Bears
787%
4
New England Patriots
731%
5
Pittsburgh Steelers
674%
6
Seattle Seahawks
670%
7
Carolina Panthers
664%
8
Los Angeles Chargers
656%
9
Houston Texans
654%
10
San Francisco 49ers
652%
Heartbreak Score
Cumulative win probability squandered in defeats
1
New York Giants
793%
2
Kansas City Chiefs
782%
3
Arizona Cardinals
751%
4
Baltimore Ravens
690%
5
Las Vegas Raiders
664%
6
Washington Commanders
638%
7
Atlanta Falcons
635%
8
Cleveland Browns
619%
9
Cincinnati Bengals
613%
10
Indianapolis Colts
608%
Heart Rate Index
Average excitement per game, unweighted
1
Chicago Bears
11.8
2
Pittsburgh Steelers
11.7
3
Atlanta Falcons
11.6
4
Denver Broncos
11.6
5
Kansas City Chiefs
11.2
6
New York Giants
11.2
7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
11.0
8
Dallas Cowboys
10.9
9
Philadelphia Eagles
10.6
10
Jacksonville Jaguars
10.5
