Win Probability Analysis by Team
A play-by-play look at which teams thrive—and which collapse—in high-leverage moments.
Using play-by-play win probability analysis, we measure every high-leverage moment in 2025—tracking lead changes, scoring efficiency, and late-game swings. Fight Score measures comeback ability in wins; Heartbreak Score measures blown leads in losses. The Heart Rate Index combines these factors with team strength (ELO) and QB rating.
Metric · Comebacks
Fight Score
Cumulative win probability overcome in victories.
1
Denver Broncos
868%
2
Jacksonville Jaguars
804%
3
Chicago Bears
787%
4
New England Patriots
731%
5
Pittsburgh Steelers
674%
6
Seattle Seahawks
670%
7
Carolina Panthers
664%
8
Los Angeles Chargers
656%
9
Houston Texans
654%
10
San Francisco 49ers
652%
Metric · Collapses
Heartbreak Score
Cumulative win probability squandered in defeats.
1
New York Giants
793%
2
Kansas City Chiefs
782%
3
Arizona Cardinals
751%
4
Baltimore Ravens
690%
5
Las Vegas Raiders
664%
6
Washington Commanders
638%
7
Atlanta Falcons
635%
8
Cleveland Browns
619%
9
Cincinnati Bengals
613%
10
Indianapolis Colts
608%
Composite · Excitement
Heart Rate Index
Average excitement per game, unweighted.
Unweighted·Quality-Adjusted
1
Chicago Bears
13.5
2
Pittsburgh Steelers
13.4
3
Denver Broncos
13.2
4
Atlanta Falcons
13.1
5
New York Giants
12.8
6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
12.7
7
Kansas City Chiefs
12.7
8
Dallas Cowboys
12.3
9
Philadelphia Eagles
12.1
10
Jacksonville Jaguars
11.9
