NFL Draft: Best Picks and Biggest Busts
Rob Moore
Methodology
- A player's rating is derived from their career Approximate Value (AV) as per Pro Football Reference, along with their annual PFF scores. The rating system gives slight preference to the initial years of a player's career, as these years typically yield higher value for the drafting team.
- A player's ROI is calculated as the difference between the player's actual rating and the expected rating, which is based on their draft position.
- The best picks are identified by the highest player rating, while the biggest busts are those with the most negative player ROI.
Player Rating
Pick's Expected Value
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/leagues/500/nfl.png&w=64&h=64&scale=crop&cquality=40&location=origin)
NFL Draft (2006 - 2023)
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/leagues/500/nfl.png&w=64&h=64&scale=crop&cquality=40&location=origin)
NFL Draft (2006 - 2023) Best Picks
Biggest Busts
Day 1 Bests
Rating
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/lar.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/den.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/hou.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/atl.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/kc.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/sf.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/lv.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/dal.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/atl.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500-dark/car.png)
Day 2 Bests
Rating
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/sea.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/ne.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/kc.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/cin.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/sea.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/bal.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/kc.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/no.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/ten.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/lac.png)
Day 3 Bests
Rating
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/pit.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/no.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/sea.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/kc.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/cin.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/gb.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/phi.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/min.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/dal.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/den.png)
Day 1 Busts
ROI
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/lv.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/det.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/sf.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/sf.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/tb.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/sea.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/nyj.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/nyj.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/cle.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/det.png)
Day 2 Busts
ROI
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/ten.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/mia.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500-dark/car.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/tb.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/sea.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/lv.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/mia.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/den.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/hou.png)
![pick.teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/det.png)
Team-by-team breakdown
Display By:
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/ari.png)
Arizona Cardinals
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/ari.png)
Arizona Cardinals Best Picks
Biggest Busts
Day 1 Bests
Rating
Day 2 Bests
Rating
Day 3 Bests
Rating
Day 1 Busts
ROI
Day 2 Busts
ROI
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/atl.png)
Atlanta Falcons
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/atl.png)
Atlanta Falcons Best Picks
Biggest Busts
Day 1 Bests
Rating
Day 2 Bests
Rating
Day 3 Bests
Rating
Day 1 Busts
ROI
Day 2 Busts
ROI
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/bal.png)
Baltimore Ravens
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/bal.png)
Baltimore Ravens Best Picks
Biggest Busts
Day 1 Bests
Rating
Day 2 Bests
Rating
Day 3 Bests
Rating
Day 1 Busts
ROI
Day 2 Busts
ROI
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/buf.png)
Buffalo Bills
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/buf.png)
Buffalo Bills Best Picks
Biggest Busts
Day 1 Bests
Rating
Day 2 Bests
Rating
Day 3 Bests
Rating
Day 1 Busts
ROI
Day 2 Busts
ROI
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500-dark/car.png)
Carolina Panthers
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500-dark/car.png)
Carolina Panthers Best Picks
Biggest Busts
Day 1 Bests
Rating
Day 2 Bests
Rating
Day 3 Bests
Rating
Day 1 Busts
ROI
Day 2 Busts
ROI
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/chi.png)
Chicago Bears
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/chi.png)
Chicago Bears Best Picks
Biggest Busts
Day 1 Bests
Rating
Day 2 Bests
Rating
Day 3 Bests
Rating
Day 1 Busts
ROI
Day 2 Busts
ROI
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/cin.png)
Cincinnati Bengals
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/cin.png)
Cincinnati Bengals Best Picks
Biggest Busts
Day 1 Bests
Rating
Day 2 Bests
Rating
Day 3 Bests
Rating
Day 1 Busts
ROI
Day 2 Busts
ROI
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/cle.png)
Cleveland Browns
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/cle.png)
Cleveland Browns Best Picks
Biggest Busts
Day 1 Bests
Rating
Day 2 Bests
Rating
Day 3 Bests
Rating
Day 1 Busts
ROI
Day 2 Busts
ROI
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/dal.png)
Dallas Cowboys
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/dal.png)
Dallas Cowboys Best Picks
Biggest Busts
Day 1 Bests
Rating
Day 2 Bests
Rating
Day 3 Bests
Rating
Day 1 Busts
ROI
Day 2 Busts
ROI
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/den.png)
Denver Broncos
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/den.png)
Denver Broncos Best Picks
Biggest Busts
Day 1 Bests
Rating
Day 2 Bests
Rating
Day 3 Bests
Rating
Day 1 Busts
ROI
Day 2 Busts
ROI
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/det.png)
Detroit Lions
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/det.png)
Detroit Lions Best Picks
Biggest Busts
Day 1 Bests
Rating
Day 2 Bests
Rating
Day 3 Bests
Rating
Day 1 Busts
ROI
Day 2 Busts
ROI
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/gb.png)
Green Bay Packers
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/gb.png)
Green Bay Packers Best Picks
Biggest Busts
Day 1 Bests
Rating
Day 2 Bests
Rating
Day 3 Bests
Rating
Day 1 Busts
ROI
Day 2 Busts
ROI
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/hou.png)
Houston Texans
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/hou.png)
Houston Texans Best Picks
Biggest Busts
Day 1 Bests
Rating
Day 2 Bests
Rating
Day 3 Bests
Rating
Day 1 Busts
ROI
Day 2 Busts
ROI
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/ind.png)
Indianapolis Colts
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/ind.png)
Indianapolis Colts Best Picks
Biggest Busts
Day 1 Bests
Rating
Day 2 Bests
Rating
Day 3 Bests
Rating
Day 1 Busts
ROI
Day 2 Busts
ROI
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/jax.png)
Jacksonville Jaguars
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/jax.png)
Jacksonville Jaguars Best Picks
Biggest Busts
Day 1 Bests
Rating
Day 2 Bests
Rating
Day 3 Bests
Rating
Day 1 Busts
ROI
Day 2 Busts
ROI
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/kc.png)
Kansas City Chiefs
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/kc.png)
Kansas City Chiefs Best Picks
Biggest Busts
Day 1 Bests
Rating
Day 2 Bests
Rating
Day 3 Bests
Rating
Day 1 Busts
ROI
Day 2 Busts
ROI
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/lv.png)
Las Vegas Raiders
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/lv.png)
Las Vegas Raiders Best Picks
Biggest Busts
Day 1 Bests
Rating
Day 2 Bests
Rating
Day 3 Bests
Rating
Day 1 Busts
ROI
Day 2 Busts
ROI
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/lac.png)
Los Angeles Chargers
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/lac.png)
Los Angeles Chargers Best Picks
Biggest Busts
Day 1 Bests
Rating
Day 2 Bests
Rating
Day 3 Bests
Rating
Day 1 Busts
ROI
Day 2 Busts
ROI
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/lar.png)
Los Angeles Rams
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/lar.png)
Los Angeles Rams Best Picks
Biggest Busts
Day 1 Bests
Rating
Day 2 Bests
Rating
Day 3 Bests
Rating
Day 1 Busts
ROI
Day 2 Busts
ROI
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/mia.png)
Miami Dolphins
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/mia.png)
Miami Dolphins Best Picks
Biggest Busts
Day 1 Bests
Rating
Day 2 Bests
Rating
Day 3 Bests
Rating
Day 1 Busts
ROI
Day 2 Busts
ROI
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/min.png)
Minnesota Vikings
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/min.png)
Minnesota Vikings Best Picks
Biggest Busts
Day 1 Bests
Rating
Day 2 Bests
Rating
Day 3 Bests
Rating
Day 1 Busts
ROI
Day 2 Busts
ROI
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/ne.png)
New England Patriots
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/ne.png)
New England Patriots Best Picks
Biggest Busts
Day 1 Bests
Rating
Day 2 Bests
Rating
Day 3 Bests
Rating
Day 1 Busts
ROI
Day 2 Busts
ROI
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/no.png)
New Orleans Saints
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/no.png)
New Orleans Saints Best Picks
Biggest Busts
Day 1 Bests
Rating
Day 2 Bests
Rating
Day 3 Bests
Rating
Day 1 Busts
ROI
Day 2 Busts
ROI
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/nyg.png)
New York Giants
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/nyg.png)
New York Giants Best Picks
Biggest Busts
Day 1 Bests
Rating
Day 2 Bests
Rating
Day 3 Bests
Rating
Day 1 Busts
ROI
Day 2 Busts
ROI
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/nyj.png)
New York Jets
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/nyj.png)
New York Jets Best Picks
Biggest Busts
Day 1 Bests
Rating
Day 2 Bests
Rating
Day 3 Bests
Rating
Day 1 Busts
ROI
Day 2 Busts
ROI
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/phi.png)
Philadelphia Eagles
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/phi.png)
Philadelphia Eagles Best Picks
Biggest Busts
Day 1 Bests
Rating
Day 2 Bests
Rating
Day 3 Bests
Rating
Day 1 Busts
ROI
Day 2 Busts
ROI
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/pit.png)
Pittsburgh Steelers
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/pit.png)
Pittsburgh Steelers Best Picks
Biggest Busts
Day 1 Bests
Rating
Day 2 Bests
Rating
Day 3 Bests
Rating
Day 1 Busts
ROI
Day 2 Busts
ROI
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/sf.png)
San Francisco 49ers
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/sf.png)
San Francisco 49ers Best Picks
Biggest Busts
Day 1 Bests
Rating
Day 2 Bests
Rating
Day 3 Bests
Rating
Day 1 Busts
ROI
Day 2 Busts
ROI
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/sea.png)
Seattle Seahawks
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/sea.png)
Seattle Seahawks Best Picks
Biggest Busts
Day 1 Bests
Rating
Day 2 Bests
Rating
Day 3 Bests
Rating
Day 1 Busts
ROI
Day 2 Busts
ROI
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/tb.png)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/tb.png)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Best Picks
Biggest Busts
Day 1 Bests
Rating
Day 2 Bests
Rating
Day 3 Bests
Rating
Day 1 Busts
ROI
Day 2 Busts
ROI
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/ten.png)
Tennessee Titans
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/ten.png)
Tennessee Titans Best Picks
Biggest Busts
Day 1 Bests
Rating
Day 2 Bests
Rating
Day 3 Bests
Rating
Day 1 Busts
ROI
Day 2 Busts
ROI
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/wsh.png)
Washington Commanders
![teamData.name](https://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nfl/500/wsh.png)
Washington Commanders Best Picks
Biggest Busts
Day 1 Bests
Rating
Day 2 Bests
Rating
Day 3 Bests
Rating
Day 1 Busts
ROI
Day 2 Busts
ROI