Buffalo Bills
Draft Profile · 2006–2025 · 159 picks analyzed
Avg Value Over Expected
-1.5
Across 159 graded picks
Hit Rate
25%
Picks outperforming draft slot
Avg Pick Movement
+7 spots
Average redraft position change
Positional Drafting
▲RB11p
+81.8▼DE12p
-144.6Total value over expected
Draft Range Rank
▲Top 10
6th▼Late 1st
25thBest / worst rank vs. league
Draft Class Performance
Year-by-year draft class rank among all teams. Color reflects relative performance.
Early grade — career still developing
Draft Investment Returns
Each circle is a draft pick, sized by capital invested. Position shows value generated versus expectations.
Biggest Steals & Busts
Top 5 picks that most outperformed or underperformed their draft slot.
Biggest Steals
| Pick | Player | Value | Redraft | +/- | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenTop Steal 2018 · QB · Wyoming | 130.6 | #7→#1 | +72.6 | |
| Kyle WilliamsTop Steal 2006 · DT · LSU | 88.0 | #134→#8 | +71.5 | |
| Wyatt TellerTop Steal 2018 · OL · Virginia Tech | 73.8 | #166→#19 | +61.0 | |
| Dion DawkinsTop Steal 2017 · OL · Temple | 85.4 | #63→#15 | +54.6 | |
| Marshawn LynchTop Steal 2007 · RB · California | 104.4 | #12→#8 | +50.0 |
Biggest Busts
| Pick | Player | Value | Redraft | +/- | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EJ ManuelBust 2013 · QB · Florida St. | 3.7 | #16→#167 | -48.1 | |
| Aaron MaybinBust 2009 · DE · Penn St. | 7.5 | #11→#125 | -47.6 | |
| Cody FordBust 2019 · OL · Oklahoma | -2.5 | #38→#250 | -42.3 | |
| T.J. SandersBust 2025 · DT · South Carolina | -3.0 | #41→#242 | -41.4 | |
| James HardyBust 2008 · WR · Indiana | -1.4 | #41→#240 | -39.8 |
Pick Range Performance
How Buffalo Bills performs in each draft slot range compared to the league average.
Range
Picks
vs. League Avg
Rank
Complete Draft History
Every draft pick since 2006.
159 picks
Pick | Player | Rd | Year | Value | Diff | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
20259 picks-145.39th of 32 View draft → | ||||||
| Maxwell HairstonEarly DB · Kentucky | 1 | 2025 | 4.0 | -39.7 | 11 |
| T.J. SandersEarly DT · South Carolina | 2 | 2025 | -3.0 | -41.4 | 12 |
| Landon JacksonEarly DE · Arkansas | 3 | 2025 | -1.6 | -29.6 | 3 |
| Deone WalkerEarly DT · Kentucky | 4 | 2025 | 4.6 | -14.6 | 17 |
| Jordan HancockEarly S · Ohio St. | 5 | 2025 | 6.2 | -6.2 | 13 |
| Jackson HawesRising Star TE · Georgia Tech | 5 | 2025 | 27.8 | +15.7 | 17 |
| Dorian StrongEarly DB · Virginia Tech | 6 | 2025 | -1.3 | -13.0 | 4 |
| Chase LundtEarly OL · Connecticut | 6 | 2025 | 0.5 | -8.7 | 2 |
| Kaden PratherEarly WR · Maryland | 7 | 2025 | -0.2 | -7.7 | |
202410 picks-131.020th of 32 View draft → | ||||||
| Keon ColemanEarly WR · Florida St. | 2 | 2024 | 20.0 | -22.1 | 26 |
| Cole BishopEarly S · Utah | 2 | 2024 | 10.3 | -21.5 | 33 |
| DeWayne CarterEarly DT · Duke | 3 | 2024 | -2.7 | -24.5 | 11 |
| Ray DavisEarly RB · Kentucky | 4 | 2024 | 16.4 | -0.7 | 34 |
| Sedrick Van Pran-GrangerEarly OL · Georgia | 5 | 2024 | 2.2 | -13.6 | 31 |
| Edefuan UlofoshioEarly LB · Washington | 5 | 2024 | 2.5 | -11.0 | 5 |
| Javon SolomonEarly DE · Troy | 5 | 2024 | -1.2 | -13.8 | 31 |
| Tylan GrableEarly OL · Central Florida | 6 | 2024 | 1.9 | -7.5 | 5 |
| Daequan HardyEarly DB · Penn St. | 6 | 2024 | 1.3 | -7.1 | |
| Travis ClaytonEarly OL | 7 | 2024 | -0.8 | -9.1 | |
20236 picks-77.220th of 32 View draft → | ||||||
| Dalton Kincaid TE · Utah | 1 | 2023 | 40.1 | -6.3 | 41 |
| O'Cyrus TorrenceLikely Bust OL · Florida | 2 | 2023 | 3.2 | -28.9 | 51 |
| Dorian Williams LB · Tulane | 3 | 2023 | 4.1 | -18.6 | 50 |
| Justin Shorter WR · Florida | 5 | 2023 | 0.0 | -14.8 | 17 |
| Nick Broeker OL · Mississippi | 7 | 2023 | 3.9 | -4.0 | 12 |
| Alex Austin DB · Oregon St. | 7 | 2023 | 2.5 | -4.7 | 29 |
20228 picks+55.63rd of 32 View draft → | ||||||
| Kaiir ElamBust DB · Florida | 1 | 2022 | 14.2 | -33.3 | 43 |
| James CookTop Steal RB · Georgia | 2 | 2022 | 72.1 | +41.3 | 66 |
| Terrel Bernard LB · Baylor | 3 | 2022 | 10.2 | -13.0 | 58 |
| Khalil ShakirTop Steal WR · Boise St. | 5 | 2022 | 54.0 | +39.0 | 62 |
| Matt Araiza P · San Diego St. | 6 | 2022 | 2.2 | -9.2 | 34 |
| Christian BenfordTop Steal DB · Villanova | 6 | 2022 | 57.0 | +46.1 | 53 |
| Luke Tenuta OL · Virginia Tech | 6 | 2022 | 3.6 | -5.4 | 7 |
| Baylon Spector LB · Clemson | 7 | 2022 | -2.0 | -9.9 | 29 |
20218 picks+15.16th of 32 View draft → | ||||||
| Gregory RousseauTop Steal DE · Miami (FL) | 1 | 2021 | 83.0 | +39.3 | 78 |
| Boogie Basham DE · Wake Forest | 2 | 2021 | 16.0 | -15.4 | 43 |
| Spencer BrownSteal OL · Northern Iowa | 3 | 2021 | 49.0 | +26.8 | 73 |
| Tommy Doyle OL · Miami (OH) | 5 | 2021 | -1.8 | -15.2 | 12 |
| Marquez Stevenson WR · Houston | 6 | 2021 | 0.4 | -9.1 | 5 |
| Damar Hamlin DB · Pittsburgh | 6 | 2021 | 9.1 | +0.3 | 53 |
| Rachad Wildgoose DB · Wisconsin | 6 | 2021 | 0.4 | -8.4 | 20 |
| Jack Anderson OL · Texas Tech | 7 | 2021 | 4.6 | -3.1 | 15 |
20207 picks+25.18th of 32 View draft → | ||||||
| A.J. Epenesa DE · Iowa | 2 | 2020 | 26.2 | -7.5 | 91 |
| Zack Moss RB · Utah | 3 | 2020 | 27.2 | +3.2 | 61 |
| Gabriel DavisTop Steal WR · Central Florida | 4 | 2020 | 46.8 | +29.7 | 80 |
| Jake Fromm QB · Georgia | 5 | 2020 | 3.9 | -8.8 | 3 |
| Tyler Bass K · Georgia Southern | 6 | 2020 | 5.8 | -4.9 | 83 |
| Isaiah Hodgins WR · Oregon St. | 6 | 2020 | 23.9 | +14.7 | 38 |
| Dane Jackson DB · Pittsburgh | 7 | 2020 | 6.2 | -1.4 | 64 |
20198 picks-43.420th of 32 View draft → | ||||||
| Ed Oliver DT · Houston | 1 | 2019 | 42.4 | -14.1 | 95 |
| Cody FordBust OL · Oklahoma | 2 | 2019 | -2.5 | -42.3 | 99 |
| Devin SingletaryTop Steal RB · Florida Atlantic | 3 | 2019 | 58.6 | +31.2 | 110 |
| Dawson Knox TE · Mississippi | 3 | 2019 | 23.4 | +1.8 | 102 |
| Vosean Joseph LB · Florida | 5 | 2019 | -2.3 | -17.4 | |
| Jaquan Johnson DB · Miami (FL) | 6 | 2019 | 17.5 | +6.2 | 60 |
| Darryl Johnson DE · North Carolina A&T | 7 | 2019 | 5.2 | -2.9 | 38 |
| Tommy Sweeney TE · Boston Col. | 7 | 2019 | 2.0 | -6.0 | 24 |
20188 picks+178.82nd of 32 View draft → | ||||||
| Josh AllenTop Steal QB · Wyoming | 1 | 2018 | 130.6 | +72.6 | 128 |
| Tremaine Edmunds LB · Virginia Tech | 1 | 2018 | 50.0 | -1.8 | 119 |
| Harrison PhillipsTop Steal DT · Stanford | 3 | 2018 | 51.0 | +29.4 | 113 |
| Taron JohnsonTop Steal DB · Weber St. | 4 | 2018 | 46.7 | +28.9 | 113 |
| Siran Neal DB · Jacksonville St. | 5 | 2018 | 10.8 | -3.5 | 131 |
| Wyatt TellerTop Steal OL · Virginia Tech | 5 | 2018 | 73.8 | +61.0 | 109 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud WR · Clemson | 6 | 2018 | 11.1 | +0.4 | 100 |
| Austin Proehl WR · North Carolina | 7 | 2018 | -1.0 | -8.2 | |
20176 picks+98.13rd of 32 View draft → | ||||||
| Tre'Davious WhiteSteal DB · LSU | 1 | 2017 | 70.6 | +25.3 | 109 |
| Zay Jones WR · East Carolina | 2 | 2017 | 29.4 | -10.8 | 123 |
| Dion DawkinsTop Steal OL · Temple | 2 | 2017 | 85.4 | +54.6 | 143 |
| Matt MilanoTop Steal LB · Boston Col. | 5 | 2017 | 55.7 | +42.5 | 106 |
| Nathan Peterman QB · Pittsburgh | 5 | 2017 | 5.7 | -6.6 | 15 |
| Tanner Vallejo LB · Boise St. | 6 | 2017 | 3.2 | -6.9 | 82 |
20167 picks-76.929th of 32 View draft → | ||||||
| Shaq Lawson DE · Clemson | 1 | 2016 | 38.3 | -11.6 | 110 |
| Reggie Ragland LB · Alabama | 2 | 2016 | 19.0 | -19.4 | 79 |
| Adolphus Washington DT · Ohio St. | 3 | 2016 | 9.7 | -15.9 | 35 |
| Cardale Jones QB · Ohio St. | 4 | 2016 | 3.1 | -12.9 | 1 |
| Jonathan Williams RB · Arkansas | 5 | 2016 | 12.8 | -1.2 | 47 |
| Kolby Listenbee WR · TCU | 6 | 2016 | 0.0 | -10.3 | |
| Kevon Seymour DB · USC | 6 | 2016 | 3.0 | -5.5 | 67 |
20156 picks-1.915th of 32 View draft → | ||||||
| Ronald Darby DB · Florida St. | 2 | 2015 | 47.2 | +12.2 | 118 |
| John Miller OL · Louisville | 3 | 2015 | 29.5 | +4.2 | 87 |
| Karlos Williams RB · Florida St. | 5 | 2015 | 11.1 | -3.0 | 11 |
| Tony Steward LB · Clemson | 6 | 2015 | 0.3 | -10.4 | 7 |
| Nick O'Leary TE · Florida St. | 6 | 2015 | 12.7 | +2.5 | 59 |
| Dezmin Lewis WR · Central Arkansas | 7 | 2015 | 0.3 | -7.4 | 2 |
20147 picks-30.825th of 32 View draft → | ||||||
| Sammy Watkins WR · Clemson | 1 | 2014 | 67.8 | +7.4 | 111 |
| Cyrus Kouandjio OL · Alabama | 2 | 2014 | 20.2 | -17.0 | 30 |
| Preston Brown LB · Louisville | 3 | 2014 | 20.3 | -7.4 | 81 |
| Ross Cockrell DB · Duke | 4 | 2014 | 35.5 | +16.3 | 97 |
| Cyril Richardson OL · Baylor | 5 | 2014 | -1.9 | -16.3 | 12 |
| Randell Johnson LB · Florida Atlantic | 7 | 2014 | -0.5 | -8.8 | 16 |
| Seantrel Henderson OL · Miami (FL) | 7 | 2014 | 2.7 | -4.9 | 39 |
20138 picks-24.121st of 32 View draft → | ||||||
| EJ ManuelBust QB · Florida St. | 1 | 2013 | 3.7 | -48.1 | 30 |
| Robert WoodsTop Steal WR · USC | 2 | 2013 | 80.0 | +41.6 | 171 |
| Kiko Alonso LB · Oregon | 2 | 2013 | 33.9 | -2.5 | 86 |
| Marquise Goodwin WR · Texas | 3 | 2013 | 43.7 | +17.5 | 114 |
| Duke Williams DB · Nevada | 4 | 2013 | 7.5 | -12.4 | 58 |
| Jonathan Meeks DB · Clemson | 5 | 2013 | 2.4 | -13.2 | 38 |
| Dustin Hopkins K · Florida St. | 6 | 2013 | 9.8 | -1.9 | 140 |
| Chris Gragg TE · Arkansas | 7 | 2013 | 3.1 | -5.2 | 32 |
20129 picks+10.318th of 32 View draft → | ||||||
| Stephon GilmoreTop Steal DB · South Carolina | 1 | 2012 | 95.7 | +39.9 | 180 |
| Cordy GlennTop Steal OL · Georgia | 2 | 2012 | 68.7 | +30.3 | 97 |
| T.J. GrahamBust WR · North Carolina St. | 3 | 2012 | -2.0 | -30.9 | 47 |
| Nigel BradhamSteal LB · Florida St. | 4 | 2012 | 45.9 | +26.0 | 116 |
| Ron Brooks DB · LSU | 4 | 2012 | 6.0 | -11.5 | 53 |
| Zebrie Sanders OL · Florida St. | 5 | 2012 | 0.0 | -15.5 | |
| Tank Carder LB · TCU | 5 | 2012 | 5.5 | -9.6 | 78 |
| Mark Asper OL · Oregon | 6 | 2012 | 0.4 | -11.2 | 7 |
| John Potter K · Western Michigan | 7 | 2012 | 0.0 | -7.3 | 9 |
20119 picks-28.022nd of 32 View draft → | ||||||
| Marcell Dareus DT · Alabama | 1 | 2011 | 78.2 | +16.9 | 121 |
| Aaron Williams DB · Texas | 2 | 2011 | 18.8 | -22.8 | 59 |
| Kelvin Sheppard LB · LSU | 3 | 2011 | 19.9 | -9.3 | 107 |
| Da'Norris Searcy DB · North Carolina | 4 | 2011 | 40.7 | +19.9 | 109 |
| Chris Hairston OL · Clemson | 4 | 2011 | 31.3 | +13.6 | 74 |
| Johnny White RB · North Carolina | 5 | 2011 | -0.2 | -16.8 | 19 |
| Chris White LB · Mississippi St. | 6 | 2011 | 1.7 | -10.8 | 51 |
| Justin Rogers DB · Richmond | 7 | 2011 | -1.9 | -11.1 | 39 |
| Michael Jasper DT · Bethel (TN) | 7 | 2011 | -0.1 | -7.5 | |
20109 picks-86.830th of 32 View draft → | ||||||
| C.J. Spiller RB · Clemson | 1 | 2010 | 65.9 | +9.4 | 90 |
| Torell TroupBust DT · Central Florida | 2 | 2010 | 0.3 | -38.1 | 21 |
| Alex Carrington DE · Arkansas St. | 3 | 2010 | 13.5 | -14.5 | 59 |
| Marcus Easley WR · Connecticut | 4 | 2010 | 4.4 | -15.1 | 42 |
| Ed Wang OL · Virginia Tech | 5 | 2010 | 0.0 | -15.9 | 6 |
| Arthur Moats LB · James Madison | 6 | 2010 | 26.7 | +15.1 | 121 |
| Danny Batten DE · South Dakota St. | 6 | 2010 | 0.4 | -9.9 | 16 |
| Levi Brown QB · Troy | 7 | 2010 | -0.1 | -9.1 | 1 |
| Kyle Calloway OL · Iowa | 7 | 2010 | 0.0 | -8.6 | |
20098 picks+12.511th of 32 View draft → | ||||||
| Aaron MaybinBust DE · Penn St. | 1 | 2009 | 7.5 | -47.6 | 48 |
| Eric Wood OL · Louisville | 1 | 2009 | 58.6 | +13.9 | 120 |
| Jairus ByrdTop Steal DB · Oregon | 2 | 2009 | 80.2 | +42.2 | 118 |
| Andy LevitreTop Steal OL · Oregon St. | 2 | 2009 | 80.9 | +46.2 | 143 |
| Shawn Nelson TE · Southern Miss | 4 | 2009 | 0.1 | -17.7 | 17 |
| Nic Harris LB · Oklahoma | 5 | 2009 | 4.0 | -11.1 | 30 |
| Cary Harris DB · USC | 6 | 2009 | 1.8 | -9.3 | 6 |
| Ellis Lankster DB · West Virginia | 7 | 2009 | 4.3 | -4.1 | 49 |
200810 picks-79.026th of 32 View draft → | ||||||
| Leodis McKelvin DB · Troy | 1 | 2008 | 38.7 | -16.4 | 111 |
| James HardyBust WR · Indiana | 2 | 2008 | -1.4 | -39.8 | 16 |
| Chris Ellis DE · Virginia Tech | 3 | 2008 | 0.3 | -27.7 | 15 |
| Reggie Corner DB · Akron | 4 | 2008 | 6.5 | -12.1 | 55 |
| Derek Fine TE · Kansas | 4 | 2008 | 6.8 | -9.9 | 18 |
| Alvin Bowen LB · Iowa St. | 5 | 2008 | 0.1 | -15.0 | 2 |
| Xavier Omon RB · NW Missouri St. | 6 | 2008 | 0.1 | -11.4 | 7 |
| Demetress Bell OL · Northwestern St. (LA) | 7 | 2008 | 21.0 | +12.6 | 40 |
| Stevie JohnsonTop Steal WR · Kentucky | 7 | 2008 | 54.3 | +46.1 | 99 |
| Kennard Cox DB · Pittsburgh | 7 | 2008 | 1.9 | -5.4 | 29 |
20077 picks+76.44th of 32 View draft → | ||||||
| Marshawn LynchTop Steal RB · California | 1 | 2007 | 104.4 | +50.0 | 149 |
| Paul PoslusznyTop Steal LB · Penn St. | 2 | 2007 | 89.5 | +47.9 | 145 |
| Trent Edwards QB · Stanford | 3 | 2007 | 32.8 | +10.3 | 38 |
| Dwayne Wright RB · Fresno St. | 4 | 2007 | -1.2 | -20.2 | 15 |
| John Wendling DB · Wyoming | 6 | 2007 | 0.8 | -10.2 | 110 |
| Derek Schouman TE · Boise St. | 7 | 2007 | 10.3 | +2.0 | 25 |
| C.J. Ah You DE · Oklahoma | 7 | 2007 | 4.1 | -3.5 | 33 |
20069 picks+8.017th of 32 View draft → | ||||||
| Donte Whitner DB · Ohio St. | 1 | 2006 | 56.5 | -0.8 | 157 |
| John McCargoBust DT · North Carolina St. | 1 | 2006 | 8.5 | -37.3 | 44 |
| Ashton Youboty DB · Ohio St. | 3 | 2006 | 8.7 | -19.9 | 49 |
| Ko Simpson DB · South Carolina | 4 | 2006 | 16.2 | -3.7 | 41 |
| Kyle WilliamsTop Steal DT · LSU | 5 | 2006 | 88.0 | +71.5 | 183 |
| Brad Butler OL · Virginia | 5 | 2006 | 20.2 | +4.6 | 33 |
| Keith Ellison LB · Oregon St. | 6 | 2006 | 19.0 | +7.4 | 58 |
| Terrance Pennington OL · New Mexico | 7 | 2006 | 2.8 | -5.8 | 16 |
| Aaron Merz OL · California | 7 | 2006 | -0.8 | -8.1 | 7 |
Frequently Asked Questions
Common questions about the Buffalo Bills's draft history.
Who is the best draft pick in Buffalo Bills history?
Josh Allen (QB), drafted #7 overall in 2018, is the Buffalo Bills's best value pick with +73 points over expected. In a redraft, Josh Allen would go #1 overall.
Who is the biggest draft bust in Buffalo Bills history?
EJ Manuel (QB), picked #16 in 2013, underperformed by 48 points vs. expected. Redraft value places EJ Manuel at #167 overall.
How well do the Buffalo Bills draft?
From 2006–2025, the Buffalo Bills average -1.5 value over expected per pick across 159 graded selections. 25% of their picks outperform their draft slot.
What was the Buffalo Bills's best draft class?
The 2018 class ranks 2nd among all teams that year, with 8 picks averaging +22.4 value over expected.
How many draft steals and busts have the Buffalo Bills had?
Since 2006, the Buffalo Bills have found 24 draft steals and had 17 busts or significant disappointments out of 159 graded picks.
